Magic Numbers (to clinch NCAA bids)

It’s Magic Number time! Last year, all 68 NCAA teams were correctly picked on this site and 67 of the 68 were placed exactly on their seed line or within one line of their actual seed. So we can identify with reasonable precision where your team stands in the pecking order and we can now see a regular season path to the NCAAs as an at-large for every team with realistic hopes of a bid.

These teams are NCAA locks:

Virginia, Villanova, Duke, UNC, Kansas, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Tennessee, Wichita State, Auburn, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Xavier

Some teams are still alive but not mentioned below because they cannot win enough games before their conference tournament to clinch a bid, even if they would very likely make the tournament by winning out in the regular season (for example, LSU will very likely make the field if they win their last four regular season games). Other teams mentioned below will very likely make the field with one less win than asked for, but they wouldn’t be absolute locks without other teams faltering.

Here is the number of remaining REGULAR SEASON games your favorite team needs to win to clinch a tournament bid (factoring in strength of remaining schedule):

American

Houston – 3

ACC

Clemson – 1
Florida State – 2
Miami – 3
Louisville – 3
Virginia Tech – 3
Syracuse – 3
NC State – 4

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island – 3

Big XII

TCU – 2
Baylor – 3
Kansas State – 3
Oklahoma – 3
Texas – 3

Big East

Creighton – 2
Seton Hall – 2
Providence – 3
Butler – 3

Big Ten

Michigan – 1

Mountain West

Nevada – 4

Pac-12

Arizona – 1
Arizona State – 3
UCLA – 3
USC – 3
Washington – 4

SEC

Alabama – 1
Arkansas – 1
Kentucky – 1
Missouri – 1
Texas A&M – 1
Florida – 2
Georgia – 3
Mississippi St – 4

West Coast

Gonzaga – 2

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