Tournament / Bubble Picture

A lot of teams are creeping towards lock status. Keep in mind, how many wins a team needs to become a lock isn’t just based on their current resume, but the potential bad losses and good wins that remain on their future schedule. So a team like Rhode Island might need to win more games than Seton Hall to lock a bid since Seton Hall has a much more difficult remaining schedule. With that in mind, the bubble has now trimmed itself and we have five distinct categories of teams: Tourney Bound, Looking Solid, Truly Bubbly, and Longshots.

Let’s break down each category.

TOURNEY BOUND – These 14 teams are going to the NCAA Tournament:

Villanova, UNC, Kansas, Virginia, Xavier, Auburn, Duke, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Wichita State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Tennessee, and Purdue

LOOKING SOLID – These 21 teams are likely to be in the field and will cement a spot with the following number of regular season wins:

Michigan – 1

Alabama – 1
Arkansas – 1
West Virginia – 1
Arizona – 1
Clemson – 1
Missouri – 1

Texas A&M – 1
Kentucky – 1
Creighton – 2
Butler – 2

Seton Hall – 2
Florida State – 2
TCU – 2
Oklahoma – 2

Providence – 3
Arizona St – 3
Gonzaga – 3
Miami – 3
Houston – 3
Rhode Island – 3

TRULY BUBBLY – These teams represent the “true bubble.” Some will play themselves in comfortably, some will play themselves out, and some will stay on the bubble all the way through the Selection Show:

Louisville, Texas, Florida, USC, Nevada, St Mary’s, Syracuse, Marquette, Washington, Kansas State, UCLA, Georgia, Middle Tennessee, Notre Dame, NC State, Virginia Tech, Utah, Nebraska, Mississippi State, Temple, St Bonaventure, Penn State, Baylor, and LSU

LONGSHOTS – These teams aren’t totally out of it, but their bubble is on the verge of being popped:

South Carolina, Buffalo, Colorado, Loyola-Chicago, Western Kentucky, Boise State, Oklahoma State, and Indiana

If you were keeping count, 35 teams from 8 conferences are Tourney Bound or Looking Solid. That means there are only nine bids available for teams that are Truly Bubbly or Longshots.

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