Saturday Tournament Picture Live Updates

We are down to the final weekend of the regular season.  So today is a good day to provide Tournament Picture updates as the day unfolds.

Subtracting the locks and the should be ins from the 36 team at-large pool shows only five bubble spots are really up for grabs at this point.  That’s particularly bad news for mid-majors who can’t pick up another quality win if the at-large spot is needed.

These teams are locks to play in the NCAA tournament:

A-10 (1) – Dayton

AAC (2) – Cincinnati, SMU

ACC (8) – Florida State, UNC, Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech

Big XII (5) – Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State

Big East (3) – Villanova, Butler, Creighton

Big Ten (5) – Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan State

SEC (4) – Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Oregon, Arizona

WCC (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

These teams should make the tournament, but aren’t quite locks yet:

A-10 (1) – VCU

Big East (4) – Xavier, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall

Big Ten (2) – Michigan, Northwestern

These teams are on the bubble:

A-10 (1) – Rhode Island (a neutral court win over Cincinnati is about all they had until beating VCU; the amount of high quality wins other teams are putting up could be URI’s downfall)

ACC (3) – Clemson (they’ll need their last regular season game and a run in the ACC Tournament), Wake Forest (the Demon Deacons picked up their second straight big victory, this time at Virginia Tech; they should make it if they avoid a bad loss in the ACC tournament), Syracuse (they have quality wins, but that RPI number keeps them close to the cut line)

Big XII (1) – Kansas State (winning the last regular season game over Texas Tech was needed, but making a tournament run looks needed, too)

Big Ten (4) – Illinois (these guys are in better shape than the pundits are letting on; a win in the Big Ten tournament might be enough), Ohio State (really needed to beat Indiana at home; it’s suddenly looking dim), Iowa (despite a high RPI, the Hawkeyes merit a serious look after winning at Wisconsin; still need to beat Penn State this weekend), Indiana (the Hoosiers suddenly have life after winning at Ohio State, but a Big Ten run is still necessary)

Pac-12 (2) – California (is hanging on by a thread; a trip to the PAC-12 final will likely be enough, but any less likely won’t), USC (the Trojans drop from the land of the “should be in;” must win their last game before the PAC-12 tournament)

SEC (2) – Vanderbilt (they may have already done enough after beating Florida, but the SEC tournament will likely be about just avoiding bad losses), Georgia (getting blasted by Arkansas is not helpful, but the opportunity is still there if they make at least the SEC semis)

Others (4) – Middle Tennessee (will get a serious look if they need it), Illinois State (they’re through to the Valley final; losing that would make for a very long week on the bubble), Wichita State (has excellent efficiency numbers, but didn’t do anything notable in the OOC except lose to competitive teams; their best hope is the rest of the bubble failing miserably), Nevada (will find it extremely hard to overcome the sweep by Fresno St, but they’ll get a look if they win out until the MWC final)

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