Tournament Picture

These teams are locks to play in the NCAA tournament:

AAC (1) – Cincinnati

ACC (6) – Florida State, UNC, Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke

Big XII (3) – Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia

Big East (2) – Villanova, Butler

Big Ten (1) – Wisconsin

SEC (2) – Kentucky, Florida

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Oregon, Arizona

Others (1) – Gonzaga

These teams should make the tournament, but aren’t locks:

AAC (1) – SMU

ACC (1) – Virginia Tech

Big XII (2) – Iowa State, Oklahoma State

Big East (2) – Xavier, Creighton

Big Ten (3) – Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota

Pac-12 (1) – USC

SEC (1) – South Carolina

These teams are on the bubble:

A-10 (3) – VCU (the profile is more bare than you would think, but some close wins will likely get them in), Dayton (not in bad shape with plenty of top 100 wins, but the lack of top 50 wins keep the Flyers from feeling comfortable), Rhode Island (a neutral court win over Cincinnati is about all they have; the loss to Fordham puts them on their last legs)

AAC (1) – Houston (a longshot that desperately needs quality wins)

ACC (5) – Clemson (lots of solid wins over other bubble contenders, and the win over Wake Forest gets them back towards the cut line), Miami (the win over UNC is the only thing that pops, but this is a solid profile overall), Wake Forest (they are lacking in quality wins, but greatly benefit from exceptional computer numbers), Pitt (is on the radar because of a strong start to the year, but the home loss to Virginia Tech makes this a longshot; not enough ACC wins), Georgia Tech (the OOC portion of the schedule was bad, but the Jackets have great wins over Florida State and North Carolina to get them squarely in the mix)

Big XII (3) – Kansas State (near the cut line because of a very weak non-conference slate, but the wins over West Virginia and at Oklahoma State and Baylor really help), Texas Tech (a very poor out of league schedule means they need to finish really strong, despite wins over Baylor and West Virginia), TCU (lacks marquee wins, and suffered a really damaging home loss to Oklahoma State that they desperately needed)

Big East (3) – Seton Hall (really benefits from the win over Creighton because they were lacking high quality victories), Marquette (may regret playing so many RPI 200+ teams, and dropping the Butler home game), Providence (may be able to overcome some bad losses with a strong finish)

Big Ten (7) – Michigan (has a middling profile that should put them near the cut line), Indiana (is just about done), Illinois (has a decent profile, but may be done in by the home loss to Winthrop and too many losses to other bubble teams), Northwestern (will likely have their first tournament appearance upcoming), Nebraska (has pretty much ruined an excellent non-conference schedule and a good start to conference play; hanging by a thread), Michigan State (has decent computer numbers that makes a so-so team likely to make the tournament), Penn State (is unlikely to overcome a couple bad OOC losses, but they have done enough to stay on the page for now)

Pac-12 (4) – Utah (is barely hanging on the bubble with an awful OOC slate and a neutral loss to San Francisco), California (has a very nice win at USC and a solid profile overall)

SEC (6) – Vanderbilt (is only under consideration because of a great OOC schedule and a win at Florida), Georgia (has an unremarkable profile, which includes a blowout home loss to Alabama), Arkansas (has a home loss to Mississippi State and a lack of great wins, but their numbers are solid), Ole Miss (has a great non-league slate but no great wins), Tennessee (the Vols find themselves close to the cut line), Alabama (is only on here because of the win at South Carolina)

Others (5) – St. Mary’s (should be fine if they avoid bad losses), UNC-Wilmington (is probably done already), Middle Tennessee (has some good wins, but still probably needs the auto bid), Illinois State (they have a few bad losses and only Wichita State as a top 50 win, so it likely won’t happen), Nevada (will find it extremely hard to overcome the sweep by Fresno St)

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