Here is an updated exhaustive list of every team that can reasonably get up to the one line, along with their estimated percentage chance of getting there.
THE TOP CONTENDERS
· Villanova (70%) – The reigning champions are 11-1 vs. the RPI top 100, with six top 50 wins (4 of which were on road or neutral courts). With the 26th rated overall schedule, they are in solid position to get a one seed if they win the Big East outright. Beating Virginia at home isn’t a must, but it drastically improves their one seed odds.
· Kansas (65%) – The Jayhawks just picked up a huge win at Kentucky and are 6-1 against the RPI top 50 (with 4 of those wins away from home). With eleven top 100 wins and the 24th-rated OOC SOS, they should get a one seed if they win the Big XII outright.
· Baylor (45%) – The Bears have 12 top 100 wins, including a whopping NINE top 50 wins. Their great ninth-rated OOC schedule puts them in prime position to land a one seed with a Big XII regular season or tournament title.
· Gonzaga (70%) – The nation’s only unbeaten has 6 top 50 wins, including Iowa State, Arizona, Butler, and Tennessee on neutral floors. Their overall SOS won’t be great by Selection Sunday, so a one seed seems unlikely if they suffer more than one loss. Even one loss isn’t a one seed guarantee.
· Arizona (30%) – The Wildcats are just 3-2 against the top 50, but they are playing their best ball right now and their best five wins of the year are away from home. They’ll probably need to win the Pac-12 regular season and tournament.
Louisville (20%), UNC (18%), Kentucky (12%), UCLA (12%), Virginia (12%), Oregon (10%), Florida State (9%)
Butler (8%), Florida (5%), Maryland (5%), Notre Dame (3%), Duke (3%), Other (3%)