Tournament Picture

These teams are locks to play in the NCAA tournament:

AAC (1) – Cincinnati

ACC (6) – Duke, Florida State, UNC, Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame

Big XII (3) – Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia

Big East (3) – Villanova, Creighton, Butler

SEC (2) – Kentucky, Florida

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Oregon, Arizona

Others (1) – Gonzaga

These teams should make the tournament, but aren’t locks:

AAC (1) – SMU

These teams are on the bubble:

A-10 (4) – VCU (lacking in quality wins, and the home loss to Georgia Tech isn’t great), Dayton (the lack of quality wins could do them in), Rhode Island (no bad losses and a neutral court win over Cincinnati help), LaSalle (a long shot that needs to be almost perfect from here on out)

AAC (2) – Temple (the bad losses will likely be too much to overcome despite the FSU and West Virginia wins), Houston (there likely isn’t enough heft to make it)

ACC (7) – Virginia Tech (the lack of bad losses and good wins will likely be enough), Clemson (lots of solid wins over other bubble contenders will likely be enough), Miami (the win at Pitt will really help), Wake Forest (needs to start winning some tough games), Pitt (is going to be headed for the cut line with a mediocre resume), NC State (a strong schedule, but ACC play has been a disaster), Georgia Tech (the OOC portion of the schedule will likely prevent a bid)

Big XII (5) – Kansas State (faces a tough climb because of a very weak non-conference slate), Texas Tech (a very poor out of league schedule means they need lots of good wins), TCU (lacks marquee wins, but has avoided damaging losses), Oklahoma State (needs to start beating top 50 teams), Iowa State (has a solid profile that should only get better)

Big East (4) – Seton Hall (has some decent wins out of conference and no bad losses), Marquette (may regret playing so many RPI 200+ teams), Providence (needs good road wins to overcome a couple bad losses), Xavier (they are simply taking on too many losses, despite a tough schedule)

Big Ten (10) – Michigan (has a middling profile that should put them near the cut line), Wisconsin (will likely be safely in the field, but the resume is lacking), Indiana (cannot make the field without a strong Big Ten run because of way too many games against RPI 200+), Illinois (has a decent profile, but may be done in by the home loss to Winthrop), Northwestern (has no bad losses and likely their first tournament appearance upcoming), Nebraska (has an excellent non-conference schedule, even if it includes a terrible home loss to Gardner-Webb), Michigan State (will likely be dancing with a solid seed despite early hiccups), Minnesota (is a solid tournament bet), Purdue (is in much better shape because of that neutral Notre Dame win), Maryland (is a safe bet for a tournament slot)

Pac-12 (4) – Utah (is barely hanging on the bubble with an awful OOC slate and a neutral loss to San Francisco), Stanford (has decent numbers but a lack of good wins), USC (has an important win over SMU at home), California (has a very nice win at USC, but not much else)

SEC (6) – Vanderbilt (is only under consideration because of a great OOC schedule), Georgia (has an unremarkable, but solid, profile), South Carolina (has a handful of good wins to make them a good tournament bet), Arkansas (has a home loss to Mississippi State and a lack of great wins), Ole Miss (has a great non-league slate but no great wins), Tennessee (the Vols are within striking range, but are lacking marquee wins)

Others (3) – St. Mary’s (should be fine if they avoid bad losses), UNC-Wilmington (needs to hope for a run by St. Bonaventure and no losses before the tournament final), Middle Tennessee (has some good wins that they hope will overcome a home loss to Georgia State)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *