Potential One Seeds

With the final weekend of the regular season upon us, we now have a clearer picture of who might end up on the one line.

Kansas – They’re 13-3 against the RPI top 50 and 17-3 against the top 100. Losses to Iowa State and in the Big XII quarterfinals wouldn’t prevent them from staying on the one line.  The only question here is whether they can clinch the overall one seed with wins against Iowa State and in the Big XII quarterfinal. I think the answer is “yes.” One seed odds: 100 percent

Villanova – They’ve played the 12th toughest schedule overall and the 15th toughest non-conference schedule.  They have no bad losses.  They are also 8-4 against the RPI top 50, but only a home blowout over Xavier is against a top-end team.  There’s enough on the profile to be a one for now, but losses to Virginia and Oklahoma don’t help if it comes down to head-to-head comparisons. What does help is winning the true round robin Big East outright if they are in comparison with Xavier.  They have an easier path to a conference tournament title than other one seed competitors. One seed odds: 75 percent

Virginia – The Hoos have a 6-2 record against RPI top 25 teams, including wins over one seed competitors Villanova, UNC, Miami, and West Virginia.  They are just 4-4 against RPI 51-100, but they played a tough overall and non-conference schedule.  They’ll need to make at least the ACC semis.  One seed odds: 60 percent

Michigan State – The Spartans are hot and have some huge wins (Kansas, Maryland, Louisville, Indiana), but they also have an ugly home loss to Nebraska and a fairly poor non-conference schedule.  Michigan State needs to make the Big Ten final to feel like a one seed is a strong possibility.  Their odds are stronger than their profile because of how well they are playing.  One seed odds: 40 percent

Oklahoma – They have nine wins over teams that will likely wear home uniforms during their first tournament game, which is a really impressive number.  They also own a sweep over West Virginia. But they’ve also struggled recently and will likely finish behind West Virginia in the true round robin Big XII standings.  OU needs to make the Big XII title game to have a strong one seed case.  One seed odds: 30 percent

Xavier – They are 8-2 against the RPI top 50 and 11-2 against the top 100.  But they also finished behind Villanova in the Big East’s true round robin standings and a home loss to Georgetown is also an ugly blemish.  Their odds aren’t bad, though, as a Big East tournament title may be enough to get them to the one line.  One seed odds: 30 percent

North Carolina – The Tar Heels are not in as good of shape as people think.  They are just 3-5 against the RPI top 50, even if they are 9-1 against RPI 51-100.  UNC will put themselves in the argument if they make the ACC final, but whether they actually get there depends on who they beat in the ACC tournament.  One seed odds: 20 percent


West Virginia (15%), Oregon (15%), Miami (10%), Maryland (3%), and Utah (2%)

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