So, here is the COMPREHENSIVE list of all POSSIBLE bubble teams. There’s not a single team who can get an at-large that isn’t listed here. That also means most of these teams have a 25% or less chance to make the field. But I’m including EVERYONE.
Updated at 9:32 am EST on 3-2-2016
SHOULD BE IN (75% or more tourney chance)
Dayton – A non-conference strength of schedule of 4 and three wins away from home over the top 50 should be enough to get it done. One more win would clinch.
Oregon State – It might take one more win because they can’t seem to win away from home. But 6 top 50 wins over tournament teams, including Utah and Oregon, will likely be enough.
South Carolina – That poor non-conference strength of schedule will not be ignored by the committee. There is still work to do, but they’ll likely make it behind their 3-1 top 50 record. But this is far from a closed case, due partially to some bad losses.
USC – They’re 11-10 against the top 100 with 4 top 50 wins. They might not need another victory.
Providence – Huge win over Creighton to guarantee a .500 Big East record. There isn’t a ton to get excited about on the resume, but winning at Villanova is a better win than any bubble competitors will have. One more win should do it.
Vanderbilt – The Commodores started the year with promise, dragged to out of the field, and then made a late push to get back into the field. One more win may be enough, thanks to a 32nd ranked non-conference schedule and some serious work against RPI 51-100 (5-2).
TRUE BUBBLE (25-74% chance)
St Bonaventure, St Joe’s, Little Rock, St Mary’s, Pitt, Wichita State, Tulsa, VCU, Cincinnati, UConn, Syracuse, Temple, Florida, Alabama, Butler, Michigan, Stanford
LONGSHOTS (under 25% chance but realistic)
Monmouth – Those wins over UCLA, USC, and Georgetown are looking worse, but the ambitious scheduling and non-conference performance help.
George Washington – Beating UVA is a huge boon, but losing at home to VCU was a killer. They need a big A-10 tournament.
Gonzaga – Cheering on fellow bubble teams UConn and Washington isn’t the best way to get a bid. But a strong OOC schedule helps.
Georgia Tech – The Jackets are on a roll. They have three top 50 wins and ample ACC tourney opportunities.
Ohio State – Four top 50 wins out of the Big Ten? Ouch. Weak scheduling.
Washington – With eight top 100 wins and three top 50 wins, this isn’t over. But it’s close.
LSU – They haven’t looked good recently, but Ben Simmons and company have wins over Kentucky, Texas A&M and at Vandy.
HUGE Longshots (these teams still have an at-large chance because their conference tournaments give them huge chances to beef up the resume, but it would be a shock if ANY of them make it)
Florida State, Kansas State, Clemson, Houston, Georgia, Arizona State, Creighton, San Diego State, Ole Miss, and Virginia Tech