12/8 Bracket

The Tar Heels have a good win over Oregon but after Sunday evening’s loss at UVA, it’s looking like this may not be a vintage UNC team. They’ve fallen to a five seed.

SOUTH
1 Louisville
16 Texas Southern

8 Indiana
9 Marquette

5 Michigan St
12 UNI

4 Kentucky
13 ETSU

6 Xavier
11 Liberty

3 Baylor
14 UTA

7 VCU
10 NC State

2 Maryland
15 Wright St

WEST

1 Michigan
16 Sam Houston St / Gardner-Webb

8 Wichita St
9 Utah St

5 UNC
12 W Kentucky

4 San Diego St
13 Belmont

6 Villanova
11 Oklahoma St

3 Arizona
14 New Mexico St

7 Penn St
10 Oklahoma

2 Gonzaga
15 Southern Utah

EAST

1 Ohio St
16 Morgan St / St Francis PA

8 Texas
9 Arkansas

5 Florida St
12 Iowa St / Creighton

4 Auburn
13 Akron

6 West Virginia
11 Georgetown

3 Dayton
14 Delaware

7 Seton Hall
10 Tennessee

2 Duke
15 Colgate

MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 Rider

8 Florida
9 Stanford

5 Purdue
12 Harvard

4 Oregon
13 Vermont

6 Colorado
11 DePaul / Richmond

3 Butler
14 UC Irvine

7 Memphis
10 LSU

2 Virginia
15 South Dakota

2020’s First Bracket

We are BACK folks! The Thanksgiving tournaments are (mostly) finished, so we now have enough games to at least throw together a halfway informed bracket.

At this point, some teams are about 65% predictive metrics, 35% results. Others are about 60% results, 40% predictive metrics. Basically, all teams have a healthy dose of predictive metrics factored in at this point, but some teams have accomplished so much or so little compared to their predictive metrics that they get tilted further in one direction than other teams.

For example, Michigan St is a four seed even though their resume doesn’t support it, but Butler is a 4 seed even though their predictive metrics don’t support that. At this point, this bracket is more art than science.

Michigan’s Battle for Atlantis championship earns them the overall one seed of this year’s first bracket.

MIDWEST

1 Michigan

16 Sam Houston St / Gardner-Webb

8 Texas

9 DePaul

5 Oklahoma St

12 Virginia Tech / St Mary’s

4 Butler

13 Belmont

6 Marquette

11 Tennessee

3 Arizona

14 UC Irvine

7 Seton Hall

10 Illinois

2 UNC

15 S Dakota

WEST

1 Ohio St

16 TX Southern

8 Xavier

9 Oklahoma

5 Florida St

12 Harvard

4 San Diego St

13 Akron

6 Colorado

11 BYU / Wichita St

3 Duke

14 N Mexico St

7 Utah St

10 VCU

2 Gonzaga

15 Colgate

SOUTH

1 Kansas

16 Rider

8 Florida 

9 Indiana

5 Auburn

12 UNI

4 Michigan St

13 W Kentucky

6 Arkansas

11 Stanford

3 Dayton

14 UT Arlington

7 Purdue

10 LSU

2 Virginia 

15 Southern Utah

EAST

1 Louisville

16 Morgan St / St Francis PA

8 Memphis

9 Penn St

5 W Virginia

12 ETSU

4 Kentucky

13 Vermont

6 Baylor

11 Temple

3 Oregon

14 Wright St

7 Villanova

10 Liberty

2 Maryland

15 Delaware

2019 Final Bracket

This is the final bracket for the year. Tennessee moves to the West region after losing to Auburn, so a lot of teams moved because of that.

EAST

1 Duke
16 Abilene Christian
(Columbia, SC)
8 Seton Hall
9 UCF

5 Virginia Tech
12 New Mexico St
(San Jose, CA)
4 Kansas St
13 Vermont

6 Cincinnati
11 St Mary’s
(Tulsa, OK)
3 LSU
14 Yale

7 Buffalo
10 VCU
(Des Moines, IA)
2 Michigan St
15 Bradley

WEST

1 Tennessee
16 Fairleigh Dickinson / NC Central
(Columbus, OH)
8 Minnesota
9 Syracuse

5 Iowa St
12 Oregon
(San Jose, CA)
4 Wisconsin
13 UC Irvine

6 Maryland
11 Florida
(Jacksonville, FL)
3 Florida St
14 Old Dominion

7 Nevada
10 Washington
(Salt Lake City, UT)
2 Gonzaga
15 Montana

SOUTH

1 Virginia
16 Iona / N Dakota St
(Columbia, SC)
8 Ole Miss
9 Utah St

5 Auburn
12 Murray St
(Hartford, CT)
4 Purdue
13 Northeastern

6 Marquette
11 Temple / Arizona St
(Salt Lake City, UT)
3 Texas Tech
14 Northern Kentucky

7 Wofford
10 TCU
(Des Moines, IA)
2 Kentucky
15 Gardner-Webb

MIDWEST

1 UNC
16 Prairie View A&M
(Columbia, SC)
8 Iowa
9 Baylor

5 Villanova
12 Liberty
(Jacksonville, FL)
4 Kansas
13 St Louis

6 Mississippi St
11 St John’s / Ohio St
(Tulsa, OK)
3 Houston
14 Georgia St

7 Louisville
10 Oklahoma
(Hartford, CT)
2 Michigan
15 Colgate

Selection Sunday Morning Bracket

Ohio State is the last team in the field, just edging out Belmont.

WE DID IT! We made it to Selection Sunday!

Thanks for following this year, and let’s cut to the big choices and the bracket:

-Duke (East), Virginia (South), Tennessee (Midwest), and UNC (West) are the ones, in order.

-The eleven seed at-larges are Florida, Arizona St, St John’s, Temple, and Ohio State, with the last four being in the play in game. Just missing include Belmont, Alabama, UNCG, NC State, Indiana, and Clemson.

Any changes to this bracket will be minimal as results roll in today.

EAST

1 Duke
16 Abilene Christian
(Columbia, SC)
8 Seton Hall
9 UCF

5 Virginia Tech
12 New Mexico St
(San Jose, CA)
4 Kansas St
13 Vermont

6 Maryland
11 St Mary’s
(Tulsa, OK)
3 LSU
14 Harvard

7 Buffalo
10 TCU
(Des Moines, IA)
2 Michigan St
15 Bradley

WEST

1 UNC
16 Prairie View A&M
(Columbus, OH)
8 Ole Miss
9 Utah St

5 Iowa St
12 Oregon
(San Jose, CA)
4 Wisconsin
13 UC Irvine

6 Cincinnati
11 Florida
(Salt Lake City, UT)
3 Texas Tech
14 Northern Kentucky

7 Nevada
10 Washington
(Salt Lake City, UT)
2 Gonzaga
15 Montana

SOUTH

1 Virginia
16 Iona / North Dakota St
(Columbus, OH)
8 Iowa
9 Baylor

5 Marquette
12 Liberty
(Hartford, CT)
4 Purdue
13 Northeastern

6 Auburn
11 Arizona St / St John’s
(Tulsa, OK)
3 Houston
14 Georgia St

7 Wofford
10 VCU
(Des Moines, IA)
2 Kentucky
15 Gardner-Webb

MIDWEST

1 Tennessee
16 Fairleigh Dickinson / NC Central
(Columbia, SC)
8 Minnesota
9 Syracuse

5 Villanova
12 Murray St
(Jacksonville, FL)
4 Kansas
13 St Louis

6 Mississippi St
11 Temple / Ohio St
(Jacksonville, FL)
3 Florida St
14 Old Dominion

7 Louisville
10 Oklahoma
(Hartford, CT)
2 Michigan
15 Colgate

Friday Bracket

Zion is back and he looks great. The committee has an excuse to bump Duke back up to the one line, and I think they’ll use it (if Duke can beat UNC).

After a really exciting day of Thursday hoops, I present Friday’s bracket:

EAST

1 Virginia
16 Prairie View A&M

8 UCF
9 Ole Miss

5 Virginia Tech
12 Liberty

4 Marquette
13 Vermont

6 Villanova
11 Ohio St

3 Houston
14 Georgia St

7 Buffalo
10 TCU

2 Michigan St
15 Gardner-Webb

WEST

1 Kentucky
16 North Dakota St / Norfolk St

8 Seton Hall
9 Syracuse

5 Nevada
12 Belmont / Alabama

4 Florida St
13 Northeastern

6 Maryland
11 Utah St / Florida

3 Texas Tech
14 Old Dominion

7 Wofford
10 Arizona St

2 Gonzaga
15 Colgate

SOUTH

1 UNC
16 Sam Houston St

8 VCU
9 Iowa

5 Mississippi St
12 Murray St

4 Kansas St
13 New Mexico St

6 Auburn
11 Temple

3 Purdue
14 Yale

7 Cincinnati
10 Baylor

2 Tennessee
15 Bradley

MIDWEST

1 Duke
16 Fairleigh Dickinson / Iona

8 Oklahoma
9 Minnesota

5 Wisconsin
12 St Mary’s

4 Kansas
13 UC Irvine

6 Iowa State
11 St John’s

3 LSU
14 Montana

7 Louisville
10 Washington

2 Michigan
15 Northern Kentucky

Monday Bracket

Due to the high number of ACC and Big Ten teams on the top three lines, Texas Tech was moved out of the Midwest and Kansas was moved into the Midwest region, which they would love.

Kansas barely sneaks by Kansas St for the first four seed, which ended up being crucial to them drawing Kansas City in this bracket, as Texas Tech had to switch regions.

Georgetown, Alabama, Texas, UNCG, Clemson, and NC State are right outside of the bracket.

EAST

1 Virginia
16 Norfolk St / Iona

8 UCF
9 Ole Miss

5 Virginia Tech
12 Creighton / Indiana

4 Kansas St
13 New Mexico St

6 Villanova
11 Utah St

3 Purdue
14 Bradley

7 Louisville
10 Minnesota

2 Tennessee
15 Northern Kentucky

MIDWEST

1 UNC
16 Fairleigh Dickinson

8 Oklahoma
9 Iowa

5 Marquette
12 Belmont / Florida

4 Kansas
13 UC Irvine

6 Auburn
11 Ohio St

3 Houston
14 Omaha

7 Iowa St
10 St John’s

2 Michigan St
15 Montana

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Gardner-Webb / Prairie View A&M

8 VCU
9 Syracuse

5 Maryland
12 Murray St

4 Florida St
13 Hofstra

6 Cincinnati
11 Arizona St

3 LSU
14 Yale

7 Wofford
10 Washington

2 Michigan
15 Colgate

SOUTH

1 Kentucky
16 Sam Houston St

8 Seton Hall
9 Baylor

5 Mississippi St
12 Liberty

4 Wisconsin
13 Old Dominion

6 Nevada
11 Temple

3 Texas Tech
14 Vermont

7 Buffalo
10 TCU

2 Duke
15 Georgia St

Sunday Bracket

Yesterday was a HUGE day of hoops, causing significant changes on the one line. Below is the new bracket, but it’s bound to change even before the power conference tournaments start. It’s time for a very firm overall seed list to be established, and that will take days of ranking and scrubbing.

Georgetown and then Texas are the first teams out for now. Belmont survives in the last at-large spot for the time being.

EAST

1 Virginia
16 Norfolk St / Iona

8 UCF
9 VCU

5 Virginia Tech
12 Florida/Indiana

4 Kansas St
13 Hofstra

6 Villanova
11 Arizona St

3 Purdue
14 Yale

7 Wofford
10 Seton Hall

2 Tennessee
15 Northern Kentucky

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Sam Houston St

8 Washington
9 Baylor

5 Marquette
12 Lipscomb

4 Florida St
13 UC Irvine

6 Nevada
11 Temple

3 Michigan
14 Radford

7 Louisville
10 Minnesota

2 Texas Tech
15 Omaha

SOUTH

1 Kentucky
16 Colgate

8 Iowa
9 Syracuse

5 Mississippi St
12 Belmont/Creighton

4 Wisconsin
13 N Mexico St

6 Auburn
11 Ohio St

3 Kansas
14 Bradley

7 Buffalo
10 TCU

2 Duke
15 Texas St

MIDWEST

1 UNC
16 Prairie View A&M / Fairleigh Dickinson

8 Oklahoma
9 Ole Miss

5 Maryland
12 Murray St

4 Houston
13 Old Dominion

6 Cincinnati
11 Utah St

3 LSU
14 Vermont

7 Iowa St
10 St John’s

2 Michigan St
15 Montana

One Seed Odds

UVA – 98% – With wins at UNC and Virginia Tech and only two losses, the Hoos can count on a one seed barring something truly bizarre.
Gonzaga – 95% – They were a one in the Bracket Preview and have won each game since. It would be very surprising if they don’t end up a one seed. In some ways, their biggest danger is three ACC teams being worthy of one seeds, allowing an SEC team to pass them, too.
UNC – 46% – The Heels will have to get a one if they beat Duke twice more.
Duke – 42% – They have the wins, but they go to UNC without Zion. He better come back if they want a one seed.
Tennessee – 40% – The Vols are right on the verge of a one, but they may need to beat both Kentucky and LSU to keep a one seed.
Kentucky – 38% – The Wildcats have the wins to be a one, but they’ll need to make at least the SEC final.
OTHERS – 41% combined – Michigan, LSU, Michigan State and others have a small chance to get a one seed. But none are major contenders.

Friday Bracket

TCU finds themselves in a First Four game, desperately needing a win at Texas to save their bid.

We are about to enjoy the last weekend of the regular season, as well as the first weekend of conference tournament finals.

At this point, seed lines shouldn’t be moving much. If a team moves more than two seed lines in my bracket, it’s likely because they are making big moves during Championship Week and because I have re-evaluated their overall standing.

EAST

1 Virginia
16 Norfolk St / Iona

8 UCF
9 VCU

5 Virginia Tech
12 Temple / TCU

4 Marquette
13 Hofstra

6 Cincinnati
11 Utah St

3 Kansas
14 Yale

7 Buffalo
10 Ole Miss

2 Michigan
15 Northern Kentucky

MIDWEST

1 Tennessee
16 Sam Houston St

8 Iowa
9 Baylor

5 Wisconsin
12 Alabama / Creighton

4 Houston
13 UC Irvine

6 Mississippi St
11 Ohio St

3 Texas Tech
14 S Dakota St

7 Auburn
10 Seton Hall

2 UNC
15 Radford

SOUTH

1 Duke
16 Colgate

8 Oklahoma
9 Minnesota

5 Maryland
12 Arizona St

4 Kansas St
13 New Mexico St

6 Iowa St
11 Florida

3 Michigan St
14 Vermont

7 Wofford
10 Texas

2 Kentucky
15 Texas St

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Prairie View A&M / Fairleigh Dickinson

8 Washington
9 Syracuse

5 Villanova
12 Liberty

4 Florida St
13 Old Dominion

6 Nevada
11 Belmont

3 Purdue
14 Drake

7 Louisville
10 St John’s

2 LSU
15 Montana

3/5 Bracket

UVA won at Syracuse to all but lock up a one seed and vault to one overall.

EAST

1 Virginia
16 Norfolk St / Fairleigh Dickinson

8 Wofford
9 UCF

5 Florida St
12 TCU / Arizona St

4 Marquette
13 Old Dominion

6 Maryland
11 Belmont

3 Texas Tech
14 S Dakota St

7 Buffalo
10 NC State

2 Michigan
15 Northern Kentucky

MIDWEST

1 Tennessee
16 Sam Houston St

8 Oklahoma
9 Syracuse

5 Iowa St
12 Seton Hall / Temple

4 Houston
13 UC Irvine

6 Cincinnati
11 Utah St

3 Kansas
14 Drake

7 Auburn
10 Texas

2 UNC
15 Radford

SOUTH

1 Duke
16 Colgate

8 Iowa
9 St John’s

5 Wisconsin
12 Alabama

4 Kansas St
13 Liberty

6 Villanova
11 Florida

3 Purdue
14 Yale

7 Baylor
10 VCU

2 Kentucky
15 Texas St

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Prairie View A&M / Iona

8 Washington
9 Ohio St

5 Mississippi St
12 New Mexico St

4 Virginia Tech
13 Hofstra

6 Nevada
11 Minnesota

3 LSU
14 Vermont

7 Louisville
10 Ole Miss

2 Michigan St
15 Montana