We are BACK folks! The Thanksgiving tournaments are (mostly) finished, so we now have enough games to at least throw together a halfway informed bracket.
At this point, some teams are about 65% predictive metrics, 35% results. Others are about 60% results, 40% predictive metrics. Basically, all teams have a healthy dose of predictive metrics factored in at this point, but some teams have accomplished so much or so little compared to their predictive metrics that they get tilted further in one direction than other teams.
For example, Michigan St is a four seed even though their resume doesn’t support it, but Butler is a 4 seed even though their predictive metrics don’t support that. At this point, this bracket is more art than science.
Thanks for following this year, and let’s cut to the big choices and the bracket:
-Duke (East), Virginia (South), Tennessee (Midwest), and UNC (West) are the ones, in order.
-The eleven seed at-larges are Florida, Arizona St, St John’s, Temple, and Ohio State, with the last four being in the play in game. Just missing include Belmont, Alabama, UNCG, NC State, Indiana, and Clemson.
Any changes to this bracket will be minimal as results roll in today.
1 Duke 16 Abilene Christian (Columbia, SC) 8 Seton Hall 9 UCF
5 Virginia Tech 12 New Mexico St (San Jose, CA) 4 Kansas St 13 Vermont
Yesterday was a HUGE day of hoops, causing significant changes on the one line. Below is the new bracket, but it’s bound to change even before the power conference tournaments start. It’s time for a very firm overall seed list to be established, and that will take days of ranking and scrubbing.
Georgetown and then Texas are the first teams out for now. Belmont survives in the last at-large spot for the time being.
We are about to enjoy the last weekend of the regular season, as well as the first weekend of conference tournament finals.
At this point, seed lines shouldn’t be moving much. If a team moves more than two seed lines in my bracket, it’s likely because they are making big moves during Championship Week and because I have re-evaluated their overall standing.