1/19 Bracket

Three top five teams, Duke, Butler, and Auburn, combined to go 0-6 this week.  What a season! Duke drops to a two, Auburn to a four, and Butler holds onto a two.


SOUTH
1 Baylor 16 Monmouth / Norfolk St
8 Houston 9 Michigan
5 Colorado 12 Virginia / DePaul
4 Maryland 13 Colgate
6 Rutgers 11 NC State
3 Seton Hall 14 William & Mary
7 Ohio St 10 Oklahoma
2 Florida St 15 Winthrop


EAST
1 San Diego St 16 Princeton / Prairie View A&M
8 Creighton 9 Penn St
5 Arizona 12 ETSU
4 Villanova 13 Western Kentucky
6 Iowa 11 Liberty
3 West Virginia 14 Stony Brook
7 Marquette 10 Illinois
2 Duke 15 Little Rock


MIDWEST
1 Kansas 16 Murray St
8 Wichita State 9 Florida
5 Stanford 12 BYU / Purdue
4 Auburn 13 SFA
6 Kentucky 11 Indiana
3 Michigan St 14 Wright St
7 Memphis 10 Virginia Tech
2 Dayton 15 South Dakota St


WEST

1 Gonzaga 16 St Francis PA
8 Arkansas 9 USC
5 LSU 12 Akron
4 Oregon 13 New Mexico St
6 Wisconsin 11 UNI
3 Louisville 14 UC Irvine
7 Texas Tech 10 St Mary’s
2 Butler 15 Montana

1/16 Bracket

Butler suffered a home loss to Seton Hall that drops them to a two seed, and allows Duke to keep hold of the fourth overall seed despite a loss to Clemson.

Butler’s resume remains one seed quality, but the lack of success against Quadrant 1 A is enough to move down to the two line (graphic from WarrenNolan.com).

SOUTH

1 Baylor
16 Grambling / Albany

8 Indiana
9 Kentucky

5 Wichita St
12 Florida / Richmond

4 Villanova
13 Georgia St

6 Creighton
11 Texas Tech

3 Auburn
14 Charlotte

7 Memphis
10 Illinois

2 Florida St
15 Winthrop

EAST

1 Duke
16 UC Riverside

8 Penn St
9 Oklahoma

5 Stanford
12 Georgetown / Texas

4 Maryland
13 New Mexico St

6 Ohio St
11 Northern Iowa

3 Seton Hall
14 Wright St

7 Wisconsin
10 St Mary’s

2 West Virginia
15 Murray St

MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 Robert Morris / NC A&T

8 Marquette
9 USC

5 Arkansas
12 Akron

4 Louisville
13 William & Mary

6 Michigan
11 Liberty

3 Dayton
14 Colgate

7 Iowa
10 BYU

2 Butler
15 S Dakota St

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Princeton

8 Virginia Tech
9 Arizona

5 Colorado
12 ETSU

4 Seton Hall
13 Colgate

6 LSU
11 Purdue

3 Oregon
14 Montana

7 Rutgers
10 Houston

2 San Diego St
15 Quinnipiac

1/13 Bracket

Arizona fell at Oregon State on Sunday. They move from the top seven seed to the last seven seed. And the Beavers replace Utah in the bracket, following Utah’s destruction at Colorado.

SOUTH

1 Baylor 
16 Grambling / Princeton 

8 Wisconsin 
9 Virginia Tech

5 Louisville 
12 ETSU 

4 Villanova 
13 Georgia St

6 Colorado 
11 Texas Tech 

3 Florida St
14 Charlotte 

7 Memphis
10 Liberty 

2 Auburn 
15 Winthrop

WEST

1 Gonzaga 
16 Quinnipiac

8 Illinois 
9 USC 

5 Arkansas 
12 Northern Iowa

4 Seton Hall
13 Colgate

6 Kentucky 
11 Xavier / VCU

3 Oregon 
14 Montana 

7 Arizona 
10 Houston 

2 San Diego St
15 South Dakota St

MIDWEST

1 Butler 
16 Robert Morris / Norfolk St

8 Rutgers 
9 BYU

5 Creighton 
12 Akron 

4 Wichita St
13 William & Mary

6 Stanford 
11 St Mary’s

3 Michigan St
14 Stony Brook 

7 Penn St 
10 Florida 

2 Kansas 
15 Nicholls

EAST

1 Duke
16 UC Riverside

8 Iowa
9 Oklahoma 

5 Michigan 
12 Georgetown / NC State

4 Maryland 
13 New Mexico St

6 Ohio St 
11 Oregon St

3 Dayton 
14 Wright St

7 LSU
10 Marquette 

2 West Virginia 
15 Murray St

1/12 Bracket


We wake up Sunday morning to not just a new one seed, but Baylor moving all the way up to one overall after winning at Allen Fieldhouse for the first time.  They now own two truly elite wins over Butler and Kansas. 


Also of note is the weak bubble. After the ten line, teams start making better arguments for being out than in but someone has to be in the field. 


SOUTH


1 Baylor 
16 Grambling / Princeton 


8 Wisconsin 
9 Virginia Tech


5 Louisville 
12 ETSU 


4 Villanova 
13 Georgia St


6 Colorado 
11 Texas Tech 


3 Florida St
14 Charlotte 


7 Memphis
10 Liberty 


2 Auburn 
15 Winthrop


WEST


1 Gonzaga 
16 Quinnipiac


8 Illinois 
9 USC 


5 Arkansas 
12 Northern Iowa


4 Seton Hall
13 Colgate


6 Kentucky 
11 Xavier / VCU


3 Oregon 
14 Montana 


7 Arizona 
10 Houston 


2 San Diego St
15 South Dakota St


MIDWEST


1 Butler 
16 Robert Morris / Norfolk St


8 Rutgers 
9 BYU


5 Creighton 
12 Akron 


4 Wichita St
13 William & Mary


6 Stanford 
11 St Mary’s


3 Michigan St
14 Stony Brook 


7 Penn St 
10 Florida 


2 Kansas 
15 Nicholls


EAST


1 Duke
16 UC Riverside


8 Iowa
9 Oklahoma 


5 Michigan 
12 Georgetown / NC State


4 Maryland 
13 New Mexico St


6 Ohio St 
11 Utah


3 Dayton 
14 Wright St


7 LSU
10 Marquette 


2 West Virginia 
15 Murray St

1/9 Bracket

Duke is one overall due to a neutral court win over Kansas.

Earlier this season, Baylor beat Butler by 1. Both teams have only one loss, but despite the head-to-head advantage for the Bears, Butler edges out Baylor for positioning on the one line.

EAST

1 Duke
16 Grambling / UMKC

8 Marquette
9 Rutgers

5 Louisville
12 Liberty

4 Wichita St
13 Akron

6 Colorado
11 Virginia Tech / Georgetown

3 Maryland
14 Colgate

7 Memphis
10 Wisconsin

2 West Virginia
15 Winthrop

SOUTH

1 Butler
16 Quinnipiac

8 Illinois
9 Virginia

5 Seton Hall
12 Louisiana Tech

4 Ohio St
13 Wright St

6 Michigan
11 DePaul / St Mary’s

3 Florida St
14 Little Rock

7 Arkansas
10 USC

2 Baylor
15 Tennessee St

MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 Robert Morris / Morgan St

8 Stanford
9 BYU

5 Penn St
12 SFA

4 Dayton
13 Charleston

6 Arizona
11 Xavier

3 Michigan St
14 Stony Brook

7 Oklahoma
10 VCU

2 Auburn
15 Omaha

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Princeton

8 LSU
9 Indiana

5 Kentucky
12 UNI

4 Wichita St
13 Furman

6 Houston
11 Iowa

3 Oregon
14 UCSB

7 Creighton
10 Florida

2 San Diego St
15 Montana

1/5 Bracket

Two previous one seeds battled in Lawrence, and Kansas came out with a gritty win over West Virginia, 60-53. That fifth Quadrant 1 win puts Kansas at second overall. Meanwhile, Gonzaga has had back-to-back poor performances in uncomfortable wins over Portland and Pepperdine. They are three overall, just in front of new #1 seed Butler. And watch out for San Diego State. Their toughest games are behind them. A one-loss San Diego State will be a one seed contender. If they stay unbeaten? They’ll get a one seed, no doubt.

EAST

1 Duke
16 Grambling / UMKC

8 Wisconsin
9 USC

5 Villanova
12 Liberty

4 Wichita St
13 Louisiana Tech

6 Marquette
11 Oklahoma St / VCU

3 Michigan St
14 N Dakota St

7 Seton Hall
10 Georgia

2 West Virginia
15 Winthrop

SOUTH

1 Butler
16 Albany

8 Virginia
9 Oklahoma

5 Louisville
12 Akron

4 Penn St
13 Loyola-Chicago

6 Memphis
11 Purdue / Florida

3 Dayton
14 Little Rock

7 Arkansas
10 Houston

2 Baylor
15 Tennessee St

MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 Robert Morris / S Carolina St

8 Stanford
9 BYU

5 Michigan
12 SFA

4 Florida St
13 Charleston

6 Arizona
11 Xavier

3 Ohio St
14 Colgate

7 Iowa
10 St Mary’s

2 Auburn
15 Siena

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Princeton

8 Texas Tech
9 Indiana

5 Colorado
12 Furman

4 Maryland
13 Wright St

6 Creighton
11 LSU

3 Oregon
14 UCSB

7 Kentucky
10 Rutgers

2 San Diego St
15 Montana

12/30 Bracket

The wild 2019-20 season continued on Sunday with an upset. West Virginia beat Ohio State in Cleveland to replace the Buckeyes on the one line.

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 UCSB

8 Seton Hall
9 Indiana

5 Penn St
12 SFA

4 Florida St
13 Kent St

6 Arizona
11 St John’s / Minnesota

3 San Diego St
14 Eastern Washington

7 St Mary’s
10 Virginia

2 Auburn
15 Delaware

EAST

1 Duke
16 Campbell / Alabama A&M

8 Utah St
9 Texas Tech

5 Dayton
12 Northern Iowa

4 Michigan
13 Yale

6 Colorado
11 Florida

3 Memphis
14 Belmont

7 Arkansas
10 Purdue

2 Baylor
15 Arkansas St

MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 N Dakota St / Coppin St

8 BYU
9 Georgetown

5 Iowa
12 Liberty

4 Villanova
13 Louisiana Tech

6 Michigan St
11 Oklahoma St / Washington

3 Louisville
14 Rider

7 Creighton
10 Houston

2 Ohio St
15 Wright St

SOUTH

1 West Virginia
16 Lafayette

8 DePaul
9 NC State

5 Wichita St
12 ETSU

4 Maryland
13 Vermont

6 Marquette
11 Stanford

3 Oregon
14 New Mexico St

7 Kentucky
10 Wisconsin

2 Butler
15 St Francis PA

12/23 Bracket

Another week, another #1 goes down with Kansas falling at Villanova, 56-55. The loss moves Kansas from first overall to fourth, just barely edging Louisville for the last one seed. Meanwhile, Virginia fell at home to South Carolina. The Cavaliers are still elite defensively, but their offense is among the worst in the power conferences. A protected seed is unlikely, and just making the tournament isn’t a given. They are at a 6 seed right now.

MIDWEST
1 Ohio St – 16 Campbell / Alabama A&M
8 BYU – 9 Creighton
5 Iowa – 12 Oklahoma St / Virginia Tech
4 Florida St – 13 Vermont
6 Indiana – 11 Liberty
3 Memphis – 14 Belmont
7 Utah St – 10 Seton Hall
2 Butler – 15 Wright St


SOUTH
1 Kansas – 16 Arkansas St
8 DePaul – 9 Stanford
5 Dayton – 12 SFA
4 Michigan – 13 Kent St
6 Wichita St – 11 Xavier / Minnesota
3 Oregon – 14 UTEP
7 Arizona – 10 Tennessee
2 Louisville – 15 Rider


EAST
1 Duke – 16 Colgate
8 Marquette – 9 Texas Tech
5 Penn St – 12 UNI
4 West Virginia – 13 ETSU
6 Virginia – 11 Florida
3 Maryland – 14 South Dakota
7 Washington – 10 NC State
2 Auburn – 15 Delaware


WEST
1 Gonzaga – 16 Bryant / Coppin St
8 Arkansas – 9 Georgetown
5 Michigan St – 12 Stephen F Austin
4 Villanova – 13 N Mexico St
6 Colorado – 11 Purdue
3 San Diego St – 14 Sacramento St
7 St Mary’s – 10 Kentucky
2 Baylor – 15 Hawaii

12/8 Bracket

The Tar Heels have a good win over Oregon but after Sunday evening’s loss at UVA, it’s looking like this may not be a vintage UNC team. They’ve fallen to a five seed.

SOUTH
1 Louisville
16 Texas Southern

8 Indiana
9 Marquette

5 Michigan St
12 UNI

4 Kentucky
13 ETSU

6 Xavier
11 Liberty

3 Baylor
14 UTA

7 VCU
10 NC State

2 Maryland
15 Wright St

WEST

1 Michigan
16 Sam Houston St / Gardner-Webb

8 Wichita St
9 Utah St

5 UNC
12 W Kentucky

4 San Diego St
13 Belmont

6 Villanova
11 Oklahoma St

3 Arizona
14 New Mexico St

7 Penn St
10 Oklahoma

2 Gonzaga
15 Southern Utah

EAST

1 Ohio St
16 Morgan St / St Francis PA

8 Texas
9 Arkansas

5 Florida St
12 Iowa St / Creighton

4 Auburn
13 Akron

6 West Virginia
11 Georgetown

3 Dayton
14 Delaware

7 Seton Hall
10 Tennessee

2 Duke
15 Colgate

MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 Rider

8 Florida
9 Stanford

5 Purdue
12 Harvard

4 Oregon
13 Vermont

6 Colorado
11 DePaul / Richmond

3 Butler
14 UC Irvine

7 Memphis
10 LSU

2 Virginia
15 South Dakota

2020’s First Bracket

We are BACK folks! The Thanksgiving tournaments are (mostly) finished, so we now have enough games to at least throw together a halfway informed bracket.

At this point, some teams are about 65% predictive metrics, 35% results. Others are about 60% results, 40% predictive metrics. Basically, all teams have a healthy dose of predictive metrics factored in at this point, but some teams have accomplished so much or so little compared to their predictive metrics that they get tilted further in one direction than other teams.

For example, Michigan St is a four seed even though their resume doesn’t support it, but Butler is a 4 seed even though their predictive metrics don’t support that. At this point, this bracket is more art than science.

Michigan’s Battle for Atlantis championship earns them the overall one seed of this year’s first bracket.

MIDWEST

1 Michigan

16 Sam Houston St / Gardner-Webb

8 Texas

9 DePaul

5 Oklahoma St

12 Virginia Tech / St Mary’s

4 Butler

13 Belmont

6 Marquette

11 Tennessee

3 Arizona

14 UC Irvine

7 Seton Hall

10 Illinois

2 UNC

15 S Dakota

WEST

1 Ohio St

16 TX Southern

8 Xavier

9 Oklahoma

5 Florida St

12 Harvard

4 San Diego St

13 Akron

6 Colorado

11 BYU / Wichita St

3 Duke

14 N Mexico St

7 Utah St

10 VCU

2 Gonzaga

15 Colgate

SOUTH

1 Kansas

16 Rider

8 Florida 

9 Indiana

5 Auburn

12 UNI

4 Michigan St

13 W Kentucky

6 Arkansas

11 Stanford

3 Dayton

14 UT Arlington

7 Purdue

10 LSU

2 Virginia 

15 Southern Utah

EAST

1 Louisville

16 Morgan St / St Francis PA

8 Memphis

9 Penn St

5 W Virginia

12 ETSU

4 Kentucky

13 Vermont

6 Baylor

11 Temple

3 Oregon

14 Wright St

7 Villanova

10 Liberty

2 Maryland

15 Delaware