Selection Sunday Bracket

There won’t be an NCAA tournament this year, but here’s a Selection Sunday bracket anyways to give everyone an idea of what might have been. If you want to skip to the bracket below, please scroll down. But this bracket will give you some insight into why teams were placed where they were.

One Seeds

Kansas is the easy choice for one overall. They were 1st in quadrant one wins, KPI, SOR, BPI, Sagarin, and Ken Pom. I suspect Bill Self would’ve chosen Omaha to Houston as the path to the Final Four, so Kansas is the one in the South. If Baylor failed to win the Big XII tournament, Gonzaga would’ve jumped them to two overall, but Baylor’s 11 quadrant one wins and victories away from home over Kansas and Villanova are too hard to ignore. Dayton rounds out the top four, despite a lack of wins over tournament-quality competition. They pass the eye test to go along with a KPI ranking of third and 13-2 record vs. the top two quadrants. Baylor goes to the Midwest, Gonzaga to the West, and Dayton to the East.

2 through 4 seeds

The fifth overall selection is Florida State. Despite some so-so efficiency metrics, the ACC Champions went 14-5 vs. the top two quads and swept Louisville. Two-loss San Diego State was uninspiring over the last few weeks of the season, but those dominant wins against Creighton, Iowa, and BYU aged well. Co-BIg East Champions Villanova and Creighton round out the two line. Villanova racked up 10 quadrant one wins (including Kansas) and the number 4 rating in KPI. Creighton won at Seton Hall and Villanova, earning 9 total quadrant one wins. FSU goes to the Midwest (as overall one Kansas can’t draw them in the South), San Diego St goes West, Villanova goes East, and Creighton goes to the South.

Duke, Michigan St, Seton Hall, and Kentucky are the three seeds. The Blue Devils had some ugly losses, but they beat Kansas on a neutral court and Michigan St on the road. Speaking of the Spartans, their efficiency metrics are great and they finished the season strong, taking home a share of the Big Ten title. Seton Hall grabbed a share of the Big East crown and they beat Maryland and Villanova, along with some other strong road wins. Kentucky rounded out the three line with a great record and an excellent performance against quadrant 1-A, but some disappointing losses to go along with a stunning home defeat to Evansville. Michigan State and Kentucky switched regions because the Midwest and South regions needed to be competitively balanced (they were not within five overall seed totals of each other).

Four and Five Lines

Pac-12 champion Oregon, Big Ten co-champ Maryland, Louisville, and Big Ten co-champ Wisconsin made up the four line. Louisville could not head to the Midwest and Indianapolis because Florida State was already there from the ACC. So Wisconsin moved to that region.

The five line is headed by Ohio State, a team that started the season very strong and picked their play back up later on. Their season-ending loss to Michigan State prevented them from moving onto the four line over Wisconsin. Butler had ten quad one wins, making them an easy selection for the five line. Auburn’s excellent record and mediocre efficiency metrics resulted in a strong resume ending up as a five seed. BYU was slated for a five seed until they fell to St Mary’s in the WCC Tournament. That loss allowed West Virginia to move into the 20th overall seed. The Mountaineers have great efficiency metrics. Although their offense struggles for long stretches, a season-ending home win over Baylor and a neutral court win over Ohio State add legitimacy to the overall profile. Ohio St goes to Omaha, Butler to Tampa, and Auburn and WVU to pods in Sacramento and Spokane.

Six, Seven, and Eight Seeds

BYU is the overall 21 seed in the bracket, making them the best six. But because BYU will not play on Sundays, they had to be in either the South or the Midwest with a Thursday-Saturday pod. Rather than bump WVU down to a six, top 7 seed Iowa moves up. Virginia ended the season well and finished with some good wins, but they still had mediocre efficiency numbers and a historically inept offense for a team that defensively efficient. Penn State could have been higher, but a poor SOS and a bad loss to Northwestern moved them to the six line. Michigan was the final six seed. Their profile was more fitting of a seven seed, but that blowout neutral court win over Gonzaga had serious staying power.

Besides BYU, Houston, Illinois, and Providence round out the seven line. Houston lacked strong wins, but their overall numbers suggest a seven seed and a good one at that. Both Illinois and Providence could have find themselves down on the eight line but Illinois had a solid collection of wins and Providence had excellent wins to go with 4 bad losses.

Arizona heads the eight seeds, going to Spokane despite a lot of missed opportunities during the season. Colorado ended with three bad losses, but played a tough schedule. The Buffs had some strong wins, including Dayton on a neutral court. St Mary’s was really solid this year, but not spectacular. An eight seed is appropriate for them, as it is for an LSU team that had 12 quadrant one or two wins but a lack of truly marquee wins.

Nine and Ten Seeds

USC did not have good efficiency metrics, but they were an impressive 17-9 vs. the first three quadrants. They topped the nine seeds and were followed by Oklahoma, who had five quadrant one wins and an excellent victory at West Virginia. Marquette and Arizona State, with five quadrant one wins each, were 35 and 36 overall. The ten line consists of Rutgers, Utah State, East Tennessee State, and Florida, in order. The Scarlet Knights had only two road victories, but one was a big one over Purdue. Utah State had a marquee win over San Diego St to boost their profile, ETSU won at LSU, and Florida had five quadrant one wins to go with no bad losses.

The Bubble

Indiana struggled on the road and was just 4-10 vs. quadrant one, but they did still have the 29th best Strength of Record. That would be just enough. They couldn’t go to Cleveland due to Iowa and Michigan State being there, so they head to Greensboro. Wichita State was swept by Cincinnati and lacked eye popping wins, but KPI, Strength of Record, and Sagarin all placed the Shockers 30th or 32nd. They were solid enough. Texas Tech rounds out the 11 seeds that avoided the First Four. Beating Louisville on a neutral court was their only glamorous win, but this team was just plain good. Despite a mediocre record and so-so schedule strength, they are one of the best 36 non-automatic qualifiers.

The First Four games would involve #44 Richmond vs. #45 NC State for an 11 seed and #46 UCLA vs. #47 Cincinnati for a 12 seed in the Mick Cronin Bowl. Richmond was a solid 14-7 vs. quadrants 1, 2, and 3 to go with a neutral court win over Wisconsin. NC State beat Duke by 22 and tallied four total quadrant one wins. Every major metric would indicate that UCLA should miss the field, but six quadrant one wins and a really strong performance down the stretch under a new coach would be just enough. Cincinnati gets the last bid after sweeping Wichita State and earning the top seed in the AAC. Despite four bad losses, they were 29th in KPI.

One-Bid Leagues

Stephen F Austin heads up the 12 seed AQ spots after losing just three times to go with a win at Duke. Liberty and Yale join them, edging out Akron, Vermont, New Mexico St, and North Texas. The 14 line is headed by 7-loss Belmont, followed by CAA Champion Hofstra, Bradley, and Eastern Washington. The fifteens are North Dakota St, UC Irvine, Little Rock, and Northern Kentucky, and the sixteens are Winthrop, Siena, Boston U, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, and NC Central, in order.

The Selection Sunday Bracket

SOUTH

1 Kansas
16 Boston U / Prairie View
(Omaha, NE)
8 Colorado
9 Marquette

5 Ohio St
12 SFA
(Omaha, NE)
4 Louisville
13 Vermont

6 Iowa
11 Wichita St
(Cleveland, OH)
3 Michigan St
14 Belmont

7 BYU
10 East Tenn St
(St Louis, MO)
2 Creighton
15 N Dakota St

EAST

1 Dayton
16 Siena
(Cleveland, OH)
8 LSU
9 Arizona St

5 Butler
12 Liberty
(Tampa, FL)
4 Maryland
13 Akron

6 Michigan
11 Texas Tech
(Greensboro, NC)
3 Duke
14 Eastern Washington

7 Illinois
10 Utah St
(Albany, NY)
2 Villanova
15 Northern Kentucky

MIDWEST

1 Baylor
16 Winthrop
(St Louis, MO)
8 St Mary's
9 USC

5 Auburn
12 UCLA / Cincinnati
(Sacramento, CA)
4 Wisconsin
13 New Mexico St

6 Virginia
11 Indiana
(Greensboro, NC)
3 Kentucky
14 Bradley

7 Houston
10 Rutgers
(Tampa, FL)
2 Florida St
15 Little Rock

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Robert Morris / NC Central
(Spokane, WA)
8 Arizona
9 Oklahoma

5 West Virginia
12 Yale
(Spokane, WA)
4 Oregon
13 North Texas

6 Penn St
11 Richmond / NC State
(Albany, NY)
3 Seton Hall
14 Hofstra

7 Providence
10 Florida
(Sacramento, CA)
2 San Diego St
15 UC Irvine

Thanks for following along this year!

3/9 Bracket

Texas Tech lost at home to Kansas to end the regular season and finds themselves just above the First Four currently. Beating Texas (two spots out) in the Big XII opener could be the difference between making and missing the field.
SOUTH

1 Kansas
16 Prairie View / St Francis

8 Arizona
9 Marquette

5 Ohio St
12 Liberty

4 Louisville
13 Vermont

6 West Virginia
11 Richmond / Wichita St

3 Kentucky
14 Hofstra

7 Iowa
10 Utah St

2 Creighton
15 Wright St

EAST

1 Dayton
16 Siena / NC Central

8 Providence
9 Oklahoma

5 Butler
12 Stanford / NC State

4 Maryland
13 Yale

6 Penn St
11 Xavier

3 Duke
14 Colgate

7 Houston
10 Rutgers

2 Villanova
15 N Dakota St

MIDWEST

1 Baylor
16 UC Irvine

8 St Mary's
9 USC

5 BYU
12 New Mexico St

4 Wisconsin
13 Belmont

6 Michigan
11 Texas Tech

3 Seton Hall
14 Bradley

7 Illinois
10 ETSU

2 Florida St
15 Little Rock

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Winthrop

8 LSU
9 Arizona St

5 Auburn
12 SFA

4 Oregon
13 Akron

6 Virginia
11 Indiana

3 Michigan St
14 North Texas

7 Colorado
10 Florida

2 San Diego St
15 E Washington

3/7 Bracket

  • Baylor can clinch a one seed if they win at West Virginia
  • Indiana can clinch a bid at home vs. Wisconsin
  • Texas Tech can clinch a bid at home vs. Kansas
  • Seton Hall can clinch an outright Big East Championship at Creighton
  • Rutgers is at Purdue in a bubble battle
  • USC can clinch a bid at home vs. UCLA, who is right on the cutline
  • Louisville can clinch a top four, protected seed at Virginia. In addition to those two, Duke and Florida State also remain alive for the ACC title.
  • The Ohio Valley title is on the line
  • First Four Out: NC State, Northern Iowa, Cincinnati, Purdue
Seton Hall can grab the outright Big East championship at Creighton. A win would likely send Seton Hall to the two line on Selection Sunday.
MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 NC A&T / Robert Morris

(Omaha, NE)

8 Houston
9 LSU

5 BYU
12 Wichita State / Richmond

(Tampa, FL)

4 Kentucky
13 Vermont

6 West Virginia
11 Stanford / Rutgers

(Cleveland, OH)

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

7 Iowa
10 Arizona St

(St Louis, MO)

2 Creighton
15 Wright St

EAST

1 Dayton
16 Winthrop

(Cleveland, OH)

8 Illinois
9 Florida

5 Auburn
12 Yale

(Greensboro, NC)

4 Maryland
13 Bradley

6 Michigan
11 Oklahoma

(Greensboro, NC)

3 Duke
14 North Texas

7 Virginia
10 ETSU

(Albany, NY)

2 Villanova
15 Colgate

SOUTH

1 Baylor
16 Siena / Prairie View A&M

(St Louis, MO)

8 St Mary's
9 Indiana

5 Wisconsin
12 SFA

(Sacramento, CA)

4 Butler
13 Akron

6 Colorado
11 Texas

(Omaha, NE)

3 Michigan St
14 UC Irvine

7 Marquette
10 Texas Tech

(Tampa, FL)

2 Florida St
15 N Dakota St

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Little Rock

(Spokane, WA)

8 Providence
9 USC

5 Ohio St
12 Liberty

(Spokane, WA)

4 Oregon
13 New Mexico St

6 Penn St
11 UCLA

(Albany, NY)

3 Seton Hall
14 Hofstra

7 Arizona
10 Xavier

(Sacramento, CA)

2 San Diego St
15 E Washington

3/6 Bracket

Villanova picked up a huge win at Seton Hall to move up to the 7th overall seed.
MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 NC A&T / Robert Morris

(Omaha, NE)

8 Houston
9 LSU

5 BYU
12 Rutgers / Cincinnati

(Tampa, FL)

4 Kentucky
13 Vermont

6 West Virginia
11 UCLA

(Cleveland, OH)

3 Louisville
14 Belmont

7 Iowa
10 Arizona St

(St Louis, MO)

2 Creighton
15 Wright St

EAST

1 Dayton
16 Radford

(Cleveland, OH)

8 Illinois
9 Florida

5 Auburn
12 Stanford / Wichita St

(Greensboro, NC)

4 Maryland
13 Yale

6 Michigan
11 Oklahoma

(Greensboro, NC)

3 Duke
14 North Texas

7 Virginia
10 ETSU

(Albany, NY)

2 Creighton
15 Colgate

SOUTH

1 Baylor
16 Siena / Prairie View A&M

(St Louis, MO)

8 St Mary's
9 Indiana

5 Wisconsin
12 SFA

(Sacramento, CA)

4 Butler
13 Akron

6 Colorado
11 Texas

(Omaha, NE)

3 Michigan St
14 UC Irvine

7 Marquette
10 Texas Tech

(Tampa, FL)

2 Florida St
15 N Dakota St

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Little Rock

(Spokane, WA)

8 Providence
9 USC

5 Ohio St
12 Liberty

(Spokane, WA)

4 Oregon
13 New Mexico St

6 Penn St
11 Northern Iowa

(Albany, NY)

3 Seton Hall
14 Hofstra

7 Arizona
10 Xavier

(Sacramento, CA)

2 San Diego St
15 E Washington

3/2 Bracket

Creighton fell at St John’s by 20, guaranteeing Seton Hall at least a share of the Big East Championship. It looks extremely likely that Seton Hall will enter the NCAAs as a top three seed.
MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 St Francis (PA) / NC A&T

8 Michigan
9 Xavier

5 Ohio St
12 Liberty

4 Michigan St
13 North Texas

6 BYU
11 Wichita St

3 Creighton
14 Hofstra

7 Houston
10 Florida

2 Duke
15 S Dakota St

EAST

1 San Diego St
16 Siena / Prairie View A&M

8 USC
9 Oklahoma

5 Penn St
12 Stanford / Texas

4 Louisville
13 Yale

6 Butler
11 UCLA

3 Maryland
14 Colgate

7 West Virginia
10 St Mary's

2 Dayton
15 Wright St

SOUTH

1 Baylor
16 Eastern Washington

8 Marquette
9 Arizona St

5 Wisconsin
12 SFA

4 Auburn
13 Vermont

6 Colorado
11 ETSU

3 Villanova
14 Belmont

7 Illinois
10 Texas Tech

2 Florida St
15 Little Rock

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Radford

8 LSU
9 Providence

5 Iowa
12 Cincinnati / NC State

4 Oregon
13 New Mexico St

6 Virginia
11 UNI

3 Kentucky
14 UC Irvine

7 Arizona
10 Indiana

2 Seton Hall
15 Bowling Green

3/1 Bracket

March is here! And with it, a new entrant to the bracket. Texas won at Texas Tech by 10 and has suddenly surged into the field. Note that Ohio St and Michigan St could meet in the second round to avoid moving either off their line, and this is permissible since they are only scheduled to play each other once this year.

MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 St Francis (PA) / NC A&T

8 Illinois
9 St Mary's

5 Penn St
12 Liberty

4 Louisville
13 North Texas

6 BYU
11 Rhode Island

3 Maryland
14 Hofstra

7 Michigan
10 Florida

2 Creighton
15 S Dakota St

EAST

1 San Diego St
16 Siena / Prairie View A&M

8 USC
9 Oklahoma

5 Ohio St
12 Wichita St / Texas

4 Michigan St
13 Yale

6 Butler
11 UCLA

3 Duke
14 Colgate

7 West Virginia
10 Xavier

2 Dayton
15 Wright St

SOUTH

1 Baylor
16 Eastern Washington

8 Marquette
9 Arizona St

5 Wisconsin
12 SFA

4 Auburn
13 Vermont

6 Colorado
11 ETSU

3 Villanova
14 Belmont

7 LSU
10 Texas Tech

2 Florida St
15 Little Rock

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Radford

8 Houston
9 Providence

5 Iowa
12 Cincinnati / NC State

4 Oregon
13 New Mexico St

6 Virginia
11 UNI

3 Kentucky
14 UC Irvine

7 Arizona
10 Indiana

2 Seton Hall
15 Bowling Green

Feb 29th Bracket

St Mary’s won at Santa Clara on Thursday night. With the win, St Mary’s can feel pretty good about a tournament bid with only Gonzaga and the WCC Tournament in front of them.
MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 St Francis (PA) / NC A&T

8 Illinois
9 St Mary's

5 Penn St
12 Northern Iowa

4 Louisville
13 North Texas

6 BYU
11 Rhode Island

3 Villanova
14 Hofstra

7 Butler
10 ETSU

2 Maryland
15 S Dakota St

EAST

1 San Diego St
16 Siena / Prairie View A&M

8 Virginia
9 Florida

5 West Virginia
12 Liberty

4 Michigan St
13 Yale

6 Michigan
11 Providence

3 Duke
14 Colgate

7 Houston
10 Xavier

2 Dayton
15 Wright St

SOUTH

1 Baylor
16 Eastern Washington

8 LSU
9 Indiana

5 Ohio St
12 Cincinnati / UCLA

4 Auburn
13 Vermont

6 Colorado
11 NC State / Wichita St

3 Seton Hall
14 Belmont

7 Marquette
10 USC

2 Florida St
15 Little Rock

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 Radford

8 Arizona St
9 Texas Tech

5 Wisconsin
12 SFA

4 Oregon
13 New Mexico St

6 Iowa
11 Utah State

3 Kentucky
14 UC Irvine

7 Arizona
10 Oklahoma

2 Creighton
15 Bowling Green

2.26 Bracket

Yikes. Duke went from fifth overall at the bracket preview to a likely three seed after falling at Wake Forest.
MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 NC A&T / Robert Morris

(Omaha, NE)

8 Houston
9 Indiana

5 West Virginia
12 Liberty

(Cleveland, OH)

4 Kentucky
13 Akron

6 BYU
11 Cincinnati

(Albany, NY)

3 Villanova
14 UC Irvine

7 Marquette
10 Rhode Island

(Cleveland, OH)

2 Dayton
15 S Dakota St

EAST

1 San Diego St
16 Montana

(Sacramento, CA)

8 Arizona St
9 Florida

5 Colorado
12 Oklahoma / Providence

(Sacramento, CA)

4 Michigan St
13 SFA

6 Michigan
11 USC

(Greensboro, NC)

3 Duke
14 Belmont

7 Wisconsin
10 ETSU

(St Louis, MO)

2 Creighton
15 Colgate

SOUTH

1 Baylor
16 Wright St

(St Louis, MO)

8 Illinois
9 St Mary's

5 Penn St
12 Northern Iowa

(Tampa, FL)

4 Auburn
13 Vermont

6 Iowa
11 Utah St

(Albany, NY)

3 Seton Hall
14 Hofstra

7 Arizona
10 Xavier

(Tampa, FL)

2 Florida St
15 Little Rock

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 St Peter's / Prairie View A&M

(Spokane, WA)

8 Texas Tech
9 Virginia

5 Ohio St
12 Yale

(Spokane, WA)

4 Oregon
13 North Texas

6 Butler
11 Wichita St / Rutgers

(Omaha, NE)

3 Louisville
14 New Mexico St

7 LSU
10 NC State

(Greensboro, NC)

2 Maryland
15 Radford

2.25 Bracket

West Virginia fell by 10 at Texas. WVU still has some things going for it, including very strong efficiency numbers. But they need to start winning games if they want to get back into the protected seed conversation.
MIDWEST

1 Kansas
16 NC A&T / Robert Morris

(Omaha, NE)

8 Houston
9 Indiana

5 West Virginia
12 Liberty

(Cleveland, OH)

4 Kentucky
13 Akron

6 BYU
11 Cincinnati

(St Louis, MO)

3 Creighton
14 UC Irvine

7 Marquette
10 Rhode Island

(Cleveland, OH)

2 Dayton
15 S Dakota St

EAST

1 San Diego St
16 Montana

(Sacramento, CA)

8 Arizona St
9 Florida

5 Colorado
12 Oklahoma / Providence

(Sacramento, CA)

4 Michigan St
13 SFA

6 Michigan
11 USC

(Albany, NY)

3 Villanova
14 Belmont

7 Wisconsin
10 Xavier

(Greensboro, NC)

2 Duke
15 Colgate

SOUTH

1 Baylor
16 Wright St

(St Louis, MO)

8 Illinois
9 St Mary's

5 Penn St
12 Northern Iowa

(Tampa, FL)

4 Auburn
13 Vermont

6 Iowa
11 Utah St

(Albany, NY)

3 Seton Hall
14 Hofstra

7 Arizona
10 ETSU

(Tampa, FL)

2 Florida St
15 Little Rock

WEST

1 Gonzaga
16 St Peter's / Prairie View A&M

(Spokane, WA)

8 Texas Tech
9 Virginia

5 Ohio St
12 Yale

(Spokane, WA)

4 Oregon
13 North Texas

6 Butler
11 Wichita St / Rutgers

(Omaha, NE)

3 Louisville
14 New Mexico St

7 LSU
10 NC State

(Greensboro, NC)

2 Maryland
15 Radford

2/24 Bracket

Cincinnati beat Wichita State in a close one on Sunday. They are right on the cutline, falling just above the First Four at the moment.
MIDWEST

1 KANSAS
16 WRIGHT ST

8 ILLINOIS
9 ST MARY'S

5 MICHIGAN ST
12 NORTHERN IOWA

4 AUBURN
13 NORTH TEXAS

6 BYU
11 WICHITA ST

3 SETON HALL
14 HOFSTRA

7 ARIZONA
10 XAVIER

2 DUKE
15 COLGATE

EAST

1 SAN DIEGO ST
16 ST PETER'S / PRAIRIE VIEW A&M

8 ARIZONA ST
9 FLORIDA

5 OHIO ST
12 YALE

4 WEST VIRGINIA
13 VERMONT

6 MICHIGAN
11 USC

3 VILLANOVA
14 UC IRVINE

7 HOUSTON
10 ETSU

2 DAYTON
15 S DAKOTA ST

SOUTH

1 BAYLOR
16 MONTANA

8 LSU
9 VIRGINIA

5 COLORADO
12 OKLAHOMA / RUTGERS

4 KENTUCKY
13 AKRON

6 PENN ST
11 UTAH ST / PROVIDENCE

3 FLORIDA ST
14 BELMONT

7 MARQUETTE
10 NC STATE

2 MARYLAND
15 RADFORD

WEST

1 GONZAGA
16 NC A&T / ROBERT MORRIS

8 TEXAS TECH
9 INDIANA

5 IOWA
12 LIBERTY

4 OREGON
13 SFA

6 BUTLER
11 CINCINNATI

3 LOUISVILLE
14 NEW MEXICO ST

7 WISCONSIN
10 RHODE ISLAND

2 CREIGHTON
15 LITTLE ROCK